Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Denver Nuggets Season Preview

The Denver Nuggets begin their 2007 - 08' season starting tonight at the Pepsi Center against Kevin Durant and the Seattle Supersonics on ESPN. The expectations for the Nuggets are sky high and I think everyone in the city of Denver is really excited to see this team perform up to those expectations. What can we expect from this team? Is a world championship out of reach? Let's break it down.

Offense - Offensively we are going to be a tough team to stop. The Nuggets fast paced style will put a ton of points on the board and should be even more improved from last year with a full training camp with Iverson. It will be difficult for opponents to match up with us, because both Carmelo and AI are two of the best offensive players in the league.

-Carmelo is the key to the offense and even with Iverson, the offense should be run through him. His offensive game demands a double team, because really no one in the league is able to match up with his size and quickness. Once the double team comes, look for Carmelo to get the ball out of his hands quickly to the open man.

- Allen Iverson brings several different elements to the offense. First off, we need to get the ball into his hands immediately when we begin the fast break. He is still (I believe) the fastest player in the NBA from end to end. He
creates not only shots for himself, but he sees the court exceptionally well on the break. Secondly, look for Iverson to become more of a play maker/distributor when we settle into our "set offense." If he can penetrate the lane he can dish to the likes of K -Mart, Nene, Najera, or Camby all of whom can finish very well around the basket. If the help defender doesn't come to stop AI in the lane, you know he will be able to finish the play.

- Nene really came into his own as a low-post scorer for us late in the season and into the playoffs. It took Nene a while to get himself in playing shape after his knee surgery, but once he did, he became a beast. It's important for the Nuggets to pound the paint, and Nene is the best option we have (besides Melo'). Nene developed a nice baby hook and an up an under move last year. Look for him to command more double teams when he gets the ball low in the post. Nene is also an underrated passer as well.

-The rest of the Nuggets offense must come from what I like to call the "Open Looks Club." These players will be the beneficiary of either A.)Iverson's ability to penetrate and bring over the help defender or B.) Melo's unique offensive game that forces teams to "shade" or double to his side of the court when he receives the ball. These players include the bigs of Martin, Camby, Najera, Nene and the shooters and I don't mean Marcus Camby (His jumper from the top of the key is as ugly as it is erratic). The shooters I mean are Chucky Atkins, Kouba Diawara, Linas Klieza, JR Smith, Von Wafer and Bobby Jones. These players have to be able to sink the open 3 point look to keep defenses honest. If these players can consistently hit the open shots, our offense really becomes unstoppable. It's important that the Nuggets take an unselfish approach on offense, if we are constantly getting the ball to the open man, look for this team to be the highest scoring in the NBA this year.

Defense - The numbers show that the Nuggets were towards the bottom of the league in points against/given up. A lot of analysts (eh...um..Charles Barkley) conclude that the Nuggets can't stop anyone and they have to outscore their opponents to win. A deeper look into the numbers show that we played at the fastest pace, meaning that we like to get up and down the court creating an increased number of opportunities for both us and the opponent. According to John Hollinger, ESPN NBA Analyst the Nuggets ranked 9th in defense efficiency when pace was factored into the equation.

The leader of our team defense is Marcus "Gumby" Camby. He is the reigning defense player of the year after he averaged 11 rebounds a game to go along with 3 blocks pg. He is the strength of our defense and sets us up on that end of the court. To give Marcus some help we will have the big bodied Nene to body up the bigger power forwards and centers. Nene has the ability to become an excellent defender because of his size, strength and quickness. It will also be great to have Kenyon Martin back in the rotation, who gained a reputation as a great defender before his last couple injury riddled years. Eddie "Hustle" Najera also can come in and give us some great energy off the bench. Carmelo isn't going to wow you with his defensive prowess, but he has been getting better year after year. In fact, Coach K praised Melo's defense early this summer when he was playing for US in the Olympic qualifier. We definitely have a solid frontcourt when it comes to the defensive side of the court. Most of our problems will come from our undersized backcourt of Allen Iverson and Chucky Atkins/ Diawara/Smith/Klieza. Teams that have big ones and twos will attack either Iverson or Atkins when they are on the floor. We do have Camby lurking if they try to get inside, but it is certainly an issue and something to watch. If players like Diawara, Klieza and Smith can come in and make an impact on the defensive side of the court, look for Coach Karl to give them more minutes.

Let's hope that both sides of the ball come out to play this year. I am hoping for the Nuggets to come out strong this year. If we can get on a role early, look for this team to win between 52 to 57 games. If we do that, we will probably land a 2 or 3 seed and have a chance to do some great things in the playoffs. As of now, I am predicting a record of 54 - 28 and a trip to the western conference finals. GO NUGGETS!!!!

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